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一 | AlphaGo战胜李世石时，人们惊叹AI在封闭规则下的完美表现。 WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。但在真实世界远比围棋盘复杂，市场有噪音、有情绪、有不可预测的黑天鹅。AI能在这样的环境中生存吗？一场名为“Alpha Arena”的实验希望给出答案：让AI用真钱、在真实市场中、完全自主地交易加密货币。这不是模拟，而是真刀真枪的较量。截至10月20日下午6点，在这场已经持续三天的AI交易大赛中，排名前三的分别是DeepSeek：账户价值冲到14150美元，三天盈利超40%。Grok紧随其后：收益率36%。Claude Sonnet 4.5排名第三，盈利24%。

二 | 有网友已经开始在线求助：“怎么让DeepSeek操作我的股票账户” 真金白银的AI交易大赛这场比赛由金融市场的AI研究实验室nof1发起，于当地时间10月17日启动了一项名为Alpha Arena的大模型交易测试。选取了6个主流AI大模型：GPT-5、Gemini 2.5 Pro、Grok-4、Claude Sonnet 4.5、DeepSeek Chat V3.1、Qwen3 Max，每个模型在去中心化交易所Hyperliquid上获得10000美元的真实USDC资金。规则简单粗暴，所有模型使用相同的输入数据和提示词，需要自主完成策略生成、仓位管理、时机选择和风险控制。没有人工干预，没有后悔药。所有交易决策完全透明公开，任何人都可以在nof1.ai网站上实时查看每一笔交易。

三 | 当前排行榜，DeepSeek和Grok领先早在10月11日，项目还在测试时期就获得了马斯克的关注，1马斯克在X上转发了项目创始人Jay Azhang的推文，配文只有简单的Grok，Grok在测试中表现突出。 “Grok4目前领先。它先做空，然后翻转为多头，时机把握完美。” 项目在10月10日首先进行了小规模实验，给6个AI模型各200美元进行交易测试。第一天Grok-4的表现就让所有人震惊：单日涨幅超过500%。 10月14日，测试规模升级到每个模型10000美元。有趣的是，这些AI模型立即展现出激进的交易风格，毫不犹豫地开出了巨大仓位。 10月16日，项目创始人Jay_azhang，发布短视频《Are you ready for Alpha Arena?》，正式抛出“Alpha Arena”概念，一个规模更大、赌注更高的实验。

四 | 视频首先展示了初步实验的结果，他们给了6个不同的人工智能模型各200美元进行交易，结果在一天内就取得了高达77.9%的集体回报率。视频也展示了并非所有模型都赚钱，有的盈利，有的亏损。 10月17日晚，Alpha Arena直播正式上线。新一轮测试正式开始，6个AI模型完全自主交易真实市场，可以自主下单、平仓、使用杠杆，所有收益按"已平仓利润"计入排行榜。比赛前两天，所有模型都在1万美元上下震荡，谨慎试探市场。但到了10月19日下午，市场突然爆发，各AI模型的命运开始急剧分化。

五 | 从走势图可以清晰看到分水岭的出现：DeepSeek（蓝线）和Grok（黑线）在关键时刻果断做多，账户价值从1万美元直线飙升；而Gemini（蓝底线）和GPT-5（绿线）则在暴涨行情中崩盘，从1万跌至7千附近。到10月20日早间，6个模型合计资产已从60000美元冲到约140000美元，整体回报率超过130%。截至当前，排行榜格局已经非常清晰，DeepSeek Chat V3.1以+41.81%的收益率领跑，账户价值14，181美元，更令人印象深刻的是它仅用6笔交易就实现了这一收益。

六 | Grok-4更加极端，只下了1笔交易就豪赚37.65%，手续费只有9.18美元。Claude Sonnet 4.5以+24.59%排第三，5笔交易中抓住了最大单笔盈利1807美元，夏普比率是0.026，意味着其风险调整后的收益表现在所有模型中最佳。相比之下，GPT-5和Gemini则表现非常差，分别亏损25.4%和29.03%。Gemini尤其惨烈——46笔交易产生的439.30美元手续费几乎吃掉了三分之一本金，成为过度交易的反面教材。

七 | 从持仓来看，获胜的模型普遍持有主流币种的多头仓位，这也印证了它们在10月19日市场暴涨前果断做多的策略。 “出身”决定命运？一个有趣的点是，不同AI模型在交易中展现出了截然不同的"性格"。DeepSeek和Grok能够脱颖而出，背后可能有一些值得分析的原因。 DeepSeek背后的幻方本身就是一家量化对冲基金，使用AI算法进行交易决策。这意味着DeepSeek从诞生之日起可能就浸润在金融数据和交易逻辑中。它的6笔交易展现出明显的量化特征，不是靠运气，而是靠概率和纪律。 Grok背后是马斯克的xAI，它有一个独特优势就是对X的实时分析。

八 | 在加密货币市场中，社交媒体情绪往往是价格变动的先行指标。有网友就自称从今年5月开始就用Grok辅助交易期权，目前收益已达1100%。网友称用Grok交易期权收益超1100% 一场AI“真人秀” nof1.ai自称为首个专注金融市场的AI研究实验室，根据其个人主页信息，创始人Jay Azhang常驻纽约，背景横跨工程、金融与生物学。他曾在摩根大通担任量化分析师，负责exotic options（奇异期权）定价。之后他加入独立石油贸易商Vitol Group，担任首席量化分析师。

九 | 据他LinkedIn显示，他是Vitol“最年轻的初级交易员”，之后联合创办了视频流媒体公司Krue，2018年创办单人GP运营的基金，在约4年时间内实现了6倍回报。2025年创办“隐秘初创公司“，大概率就是nof1.ai，目标是把AI研究直接对接金融市场。区块链媒体CoinTelegraph曾在2022年的报道中将Jay描述为Web3创业家，当时他用ChatGPT写了一首"关于在加密货币中亏钱的歌词"，颇具自嘲意味。另一位联合创始人Matthew Siper是纽约大学机器学习方向的博士候选人，同时也是AI研究科学家。一个还没毕业的博士生做项目，这更像是一个验证学术假设的实验。从团队背景来看，nof1并不是纯粹的商业炒作。Jay本人具备量化交易经验，他很清楚市场的残酷和AI的局限。

十 | Alpha Arena更像是他在问一个问题，既然我自己能用量化策略赚钱，那AI能不能也做到？不过，在为这些AI交易员的表现惊叹之余，也需要保持一些冷静。Alpha Arena为“让AI在活市场里跑分”提供了前所未有的公开窗口，但作为基准测试，它仍然缺乏大样本、长时间、跨市场的数据积累，缺乏透明、可复现的输入与运行设置。换句话说，它更像一场极具观赏性的“链上真人秀”，而不是能直接指导模型选型或金融生产的严格Benchmark。值得注意的一点是，官方目前只强调统一Prompt+统一输入的赛制设定，并未对外公布完整的Prompt文本。这意味着我们无法完全复现这些AI的决策过程。但不管怎样，这场实验已经证明，AI已经具备在真实市场中交易能力的迹象，量化交易公司已经在试图借助AI来帮助自己更好的交易，也许也许真正的问题不是AI能否交易，而是我们准备好迎接AI交易员了吗？。

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Published on:10:44:08